Sabah upcoming assembly election: Will Sabah PH emerge a kingmaker or just play spoilsport?

In the upcoming Sabah polls probably in a year’s time, it looks as though the GRS and BN-Umno and Warisan will be engaged in a direct battle, with incumbent GRS leader Chief Minister Hajiji seeking a second term. While the Sabah PH not poised to secure power independently, could play a crucial role if the GRS – BN- Warisan contest ends in a tie. However, some believe the Sabah PH might disrupt the electoral landscape for the three primary parties in numerous constituencies. In the 2020 state polls, the Sabah PH secured only nine seats (DAP-6, PKR-2,UPKO-1) out of 73, but in the 2022 Dewan Rakyat elections, it won only five seats (DAP-2, PKR-1, UPKO-2) and a 14.7% vote share.

The Sabah PH’s vote share in the 2020 state polls was 15%, but in the 2022 Dewan Rakyat polls, it cornered a smaller 14.7% vote share.

In a year or so, Sabah will go to polls where GRS and the BN and Warisan are locked in a direct contest as incumbent GRS head and Chief Minister Hajiji hopes to form his government the second time. The Sabah PH is resurgent in Sabah but too far from hoping to come to power on its own. Yet, it can emerge a kingmaker in case of the GRS-BN-Warisan contest ending in a draw. But many think the Sabah PH would just play spoilsport for the three main parties in dozens of seats.

Except for UPKO and Dap which has strong roots in Sabah, the PH’s Sabah leadership is perceived as relatively weak. The party’s resurgence in Sabah from a bit player is largely due to the focus of the party’s big guns including Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on the state where the party big-wigs from Dap, Amanah and PKR have been regularly visiting in the past few years.

But the Sabah PH changing its state leader to Christina Liew just before the elections is being seen as negative by many. Christina Liew lacks grassroots support and even division leaders within Sabah PKR at one time have called for Christina Liew to be removed as Sabah PKR chairman.

The Warisan has claimed that the PH has gone slow on probe against the GRS leaders, since both the parties have struck a deal after the failed political coup by Shafie Apdal and Bung Moktar. The central agencies not seen arresting and charging any politicians in Sabah the last one year has strengthened this impression. Many see the Sabah PH only trying to divide the opposition and anti-incumbency votes in favour of the BN-UMNO and for the benefit of Zahid Hamidi the Umno President.


Why is the Sabah PH hopeful?

The PHs impressive show in the recent state elections after it won Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan and nearly 40% vote share was seen as the party gaining a foothold in other states. After the party’s good show, many began to see it as a credible opponent to the PN, especially due to state Bersatu chief Ronald Kiandee’s strident opposition to the ruling party the GRS.

PMX’s sway over the voters, especially the youth, is another factor that gives hope to the Sabah PH. PMX will be the poster boy for Sabah PH. And the talk is also, the party is in alliance with former Foreign Minister Anifah Aman’ and his brother the former CM Musa Aman who still has some appeal in the state.

What is the Sabah PH’s gameplan?

In the 2020 elections, the Warisan-PH plus had lost the state. Warisan had cut ties with Sabah PH and had gone solo for the Dewan Rakyat elections two years later. Now, the Sabah PH is focusing its energy on nearly 25 seats where it thinks it has significant pull among voters. It hopes to win from nearly 20 seats where it will not be in direct contest with the GRS or the BN-Umno or Warisan due to the seat-sharing formula, while on the remaining seats it will divide the votes against the dominant candidates.

In the 73-seat assembly, the Sabah PH’s hope is to corner more than 15 seats and become a king maker in case none of the main opponents, the GRS and BN-Umno and the Warisan gaining a large edge over the other. All depends on the Sabah PH’s ability to translate its vote share, into seats.