With Hajiji and Shafie and Bung on its side, why the PH sits pretty in Sabah

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will have reason to be happy with Sabah’s political classroom. The Borneo state is perhaps the only state whose all State Assemblymen – both ruling and opposition – are part of the PMX’s Unity government.

This in a nutshell tells you the story of Sabah politics. The three principal parties – the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), Sabah Barisan Nastional (BN) and the Warisan – are bending backwards to be in the good books of the Pakatan Harapan (PH). In fact, Chief Minister Hajiji who usually keeps himself away from national politics, asked the opposition parties to do a rethink on their decision, saying Gabungan Rakyat Sabah  will never take part in any “langkah” (move) to topple the present federal government.

Therein lies a story. The decision to be seen on the side of the PH is not borne out of love for the Sabah PKR, Sabah DAP, Sabah Amanah and UPKO but by the desire of the Warisan and GRS and the BN to neutralise the other in the run-up to the state assembly elections on or before September 2025.

Technically, the Sabah Umno right now has an alliance with the Warisan. But that is only on paper because Sabah Umno’s dalliance with the Warisan is the worst-kept secret in Sabah.

Chastened by the humiliating defeat in 2020 and forced to eat humble pie, Shafie Apdal has been bending backwards to please the PH. At different public fora over the past one and a half years, Shafie has been laying it thick, hoping PMX would be suitably mollified. It has not fully happened. Shafie made a few bad moves, wanted to go solo in the 15th general election and fight PH to split votes and this was the second time that Shafie had snapped ties with the PH.  He had earlier blamed his alliance with the PH after his Warisan’s defeat in 2020, and during the ‘ Sheraton Move’ was seen sneaking into Muhyiddin’s house. But Shafie went back to PH after 2022 General Elections and supported Anwar Ibrahim as the 10th prime minister (PMX).

The flip side is that Shafie knows that the Warisan may find it hard to survive one more stint out of power. The Warisan in 2020 won 23 seats, but 11 of its assemblymen defected and for Parliament won only 3 of the 25 seats in 2022. It would need an enormous swing away from GRS to help Shafie slide into the driver’s seat in Sabah.

Sabah therefore is a peculiar state where the weakest political player is actually the strongest.