In warfare, one question often asked about army commanders is: “Is he lucky enough to win a war?” In the Sabah election phase, the mystery as to what exactly clicks in politics — luck or other factors — will remain unresolved.
Only two years ago, every step Hajiji took reversed his political fortune. He was challenged by Shafie Apdal and Bung Moktar who staged a rebellion to unseat him as Chief minister. This was at a time when the Sabah Chief Minister was struggling hard to get acceptability within the Madani government.
In fact, it was when Anwar Ibrahim was declared the Prime Minister that Hajiji made up his mind to sever ties with the Bersatu. By all indications then, Anwar Ibrahim had emerged as a leader who was bulldozing his way to assert himself as the supreme leader. The manner in which the PH and a group of leaders pushed through his primacy in the PH fold smacked of hectoring and bullying of the nay-sayers to fall in line. And they fell in line sooner than later in the face of pressure from the PMX and the PH.
Anwar Ibrahim was then untested at the national level and there was an apprehension that he would not last at the national level as PMX. At that time Anwar loyalists maintained that the PH could easily fill in the vacuum created by a discredited Umno and two helpless former prime minister in the form of Ismail Sabri and Najib Razak. Zahid Hamidi’s insistence on not projecting a prime ministerial candidate was ignored by the Barisan National, although there was growing skepticism within the BN fold about the efficacy and appeal of Anwar.
And even Sarawak chief minister Abang Johari silently opposed it on the grounds that Anwar’s projection would affect his prospects in the Sarawak Assembly poll scheduled then.
As for Sabah, 7 terms Sulaman Assemblyman, Hajiji ‘s decision to part ways with the Bersatu and the PN was based on the cold political calculation that Bersatu-PN wouldn’t have an all-Malaysia appeal.
But far from these calculations, Anwar Ibrahim crafted his image as a crusader against corruption and a pro-development politician and a decisive “doer” unafraid of taking tough decisions. Despite all odds, Anwar pulled through because of a divided Opposition and his distinct political persona that attracted fence-sitters to him.
In Sabah, from USNO to Umno to Bersatu to Gagasan Rakyat, Hajiji performed very well in the 2022 Parliamentary elections. And in the 2020 Sabah state elections, he got an overwhelming mandate reducing the Warisan and the PH to the margins. A crest-fallen Shafie lost his chiefministership.
Shafie’s tenure as Sabah’s Chief Minister was mired in a series of scandals that marred Shafie’s legacy of governance and able administration. His move was certainly out of sync with people’s expectations of him. The emerging political narrative then was that he would be good for the state while people chose Hajiji to lead the state. He did not buy that argument and after the 2020 election results went ahead trying to forge a coalition with Dr Jeffrey Kitingan to consolidate his position. His supposedly alliance with Dr Jeffrey Kitingan was as much frowned upon as his decision to install Dr Jeffrey Kitingan as chief minister. It failed as Dr Jeffrey Kitingan refused to work with him as he was already part of the GRS alliance.
On the face of it, these seemed illogical and often counter-productive to Hajiji’s goal of consolidation of support. In hindsight, all these appear to have been smart moves. The election results make it seem as though these were perfectly timed with a stroke of genius. On the other hand, the Warisan’s strategy to win over KDMR yielded little dividend as they found more affinity with the GRS Grand Alliance than the Warisan-led alliance. There was little doubt about the formidability of the social coalition that Hajiji forged.
Now, coming back to main question: Does luck play a role in politics? Would any of these generals (read Hajiji and Shafie) have won the war without luck?
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