2023 could be one of the best years for Umno since 2018 but only if it addresses internal malaise

That United Malays National Organisation (Umno) is in a state of inertia is not news anymore. But there is the possibility that 2023 could be one of the best years for the party since 2018.. How? August 12th six states are to elect their assemblies and the party has a good chance to emerge as the winner in more than half of these states because of the political alliance with Pakatan Harapan (PH). This will bring Umno sympathisers great respite, especially as the existential crisis for both the party as well as the President Zahid Hamidi has been mounting every passing day.

Since the 2018 electoral setback, the Umno has been jostling with one crisis after another. First, Najib Tun Razak resigned as president and now he is in jail serving a 12-year sentence for criminal breach of trust, money laundering, and abuse of power, and the party witnessed a series of internal power struggles, among others.

On Jan 27 this year, the party sacked former Umno Youth leader Khairy Jamaluddin, and former Selangor Umno chief Noh Omar and also suspended Sembrong member of parliament Hishammuddin Hussein, former Umno information chief Shahril Sufian Hamdan, Tebrau Umno division chief Maulizan Bujang and Jempol Umno division chief Mohd Salim Shariff for six years. This created another storm within the rank and file. However, no genuine attempt has been made to work on the recommendations for organisational rejuvenation expressed by senior leaders and many more sharing similar sentiments.

Electorally, the Umno has not recovered from the jolt it received in 2018. In many states where it was an important player — for example, in Sabah, Perlis and Trengganu — it has either completely disappeared or been reduced to a marginal player. The Umno has not only been losing its support base but has often been blamed for dragging down the performance of its allies MCA and MIC and PBRS. More recently, the BN- Umno’s performance in the 2022 GE15 has been disastrous and is said to have brought the total seat tally to only 30 behind the Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) in a closely contested election. Similarly early this year, the Umno was the eventual loser in Sabah after a failed coup to topple Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Noor staged by Umno’s Deputy Chief Minister Bung Moktar and Parti Warisan Sabah’s Shafie Apdal.

Furthermore, in the past few months not only has the attrition of Umno politicians increased, there’s also a greater degree of one-upmanship in the PN’s camp to upstage the Umno party. And it is not merely limited to snide remarks at the Umno leadership; there is now active poaching of disgruntled Umno politicians by parties like the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah and Perikatan Nasional

Among the six states polling in 2023, the Umno has a good chance of returning in Kedah and Trengganu. Though the chaos around Kedah’s Sanusi Md Nor’s 3am arrest could have been dealt in a better way, the party remains on a solid wicket in a oppositional space in the state. With some effort, it can upset the PN’s calculation of returning in Kedah, and Trengganu.

But the Umno has its own set of troubles in the latter two states.

There are also significant internal tussles in Kelantan, and in Sabah and Perlis the Umno seems to have become a permanent opposition. In Sabah the party managed to give a scare to the GRS leadership with its energetic campaign in 2020 to take over the CMship. Can it repeat the feat? The biggest worry for the Umno, however, is that of late the party seems to have developed a habit of spoiling its good fortune.

All of this has created a situation in which the Umno-BN brand is now under severe crisis. Neither is it an attractive symbol for new voters nor for aspiring politicians. There is also an increasing realisation that the Umno can’t drive in Kelantan and Sabah as an opposition coalition because of leadership challenges within. In this situation, winning a few states in 2023 will not only boost the morale of Umno sympathisers, but may also put some restraint among party baiters. Additionally, in Sabah it may create positive momentum in the party’s favour in 2024 when critical state from Umno’s’ perspective would elect its assembly.

More importantly, the Umno must act urgently to gain a position of strength to be able to mobilise resources (cash and volunteers, among others) and help the party to become nationally competitive again. Ruling a resource-rich state brings greater access to deeper pockets. If the Umno doesn’t win any new state in 2023, the party may not have enough cash reserves to mount a campaign in 2024. This may even put a dent in its status as the weakest link in the unity government, leave alone the possibility of its revival and crossing the two-digit mark.

The next 12 days is extremely important for Umno. The current Umno is an avatar of a vertical split in the parent party in 1988 when a high court decision declared Umno as an illegal organisation, and Dr Mahathir and his followers formed a new party — Umno Baru. At its historical low, the party should take full advantage of the ray of hope being offered in August 2023. However, it must not become laid-back just because it might win a few states. There is a far deeper malaise brewing within the party. It must urgently decide if 2023 is going to be a year of course-correction or another year in drift. That decision will also shape Malaysia’s political mosaic in the run-up to 2027.