From Seremban, I just got word from my UMNO intelligentsia cum UMNO foot soldier Idris Othman, that UMNO/Barisan National , will surely lose this Bagan Pinang by-election this October 11 by about 500 votes to PAS Zulkefly Omar.
According to Idris, the RM500 bonus the government gave to all civil servants just before the Raya is of no effect to the 4000+ soldiers who are the bulk of the postal voters in Bagan Pinang constituency. It seems that the RM500 bonus the government gave the civil servants is far too little and the army personnel are not too happy with this miserable sum considering the million million $ the UMNOputras stashed away in their cookie jars all over the country. Just the thought of the million million $ stolen away by UMNOpurtas is enough for the entire or majority of the army votes to go the PAS way. Besides, many are saying that ISA Samad had the Negri Sembilan state coffers wiped clean during his time as Mentri Besar (Chief Minister) for 22 years (apparently to the tune of billions!!). Again Isa Samad’s suspension from Umno, after he was found guilty of buying votes during the party polls in 2004 confirms the level of corruption amongst the UMNOputras . So what is RM500 lah? This RM500 bonus has backfired. It seems it is very clear now that cronyism, patronage and corruption sums up UMNO.
To be exact, the soldiers account for 4,571 of 4,604 postal votes in the constituency and they are intelligent voters and cannot be dictated by anyone including the GENERALS.
Remember, the postal votes saved Bagan Pinang seat from falling to the opposition in the last March 8, 2008 General Elections. In the 2008 General Elections, BN’s Azman Mohammad Noor obtained about 3,000 postal votes against about 1,000 postal votes polled by PAS’ Ramli Ismail. Azman won the seat with 2,333-vote majority. This time around it seems as though its going the other way. But, the Barisan Nasional is desperate for a win and wants to retain the seat by hook or crook with a bigger majority. For UMNO, the postal votes were always perceived as its safety net, but, this time around they are going to be in for a big surprise.
Bagan Pinang has 13,664 voters. 2834 voters are Indians, 1498 voters are Chinese and 8500 voters are Malays.
In the last general election, PAS garnered 80 per cent of the Indian votes, 65 per cent of the Chinese votes and merely between 10 and 15 per cent of the Malay votes. This time around, PAS and Anwar Ibrahim are really working very hard to get at least 40% of the Malay votes which according to Idris is very possible. Ustaz Hadi Awang and Anwar had been seen spending a lot of time in the PD army camp the last two days and this is sure good sign.
So after seven successive by-election defeats for Barisan Nasional in the last 1 year after the March 8, 2008, the tsunami still continues to Bagan Pinang. Are we going to see a real regime change after this by-election? It seems that there’s a real prospect of BN losing this time to give an 8-1 score to the people of this nation.
So my take for this by-election in Bagan Pinang is the same as Idris. PAS TO WIN BY APPROXIMATELY 500 votes majority.
The voters of Bagan Pinang will Vote out the forces of tyranny. Bagan Pinang will vote against the BN.
Despite Pakatan Rakyat having much flaws they are still a better choice than UMNO/BN.